Radins Razor and the Fallacy of Prediction

Author(s)

Danielle Radin ,

Download Full PDF Pages: 01-03 | Views: 300 | Downloads: 83 | DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6541833

Volume 11 - April 2022 (04)

Abstract

In light of an unpredictable pandemic, numerous attempts have been made to use past conditions to assume or predict future actions, consequences, and events. The attempts have often been such that they can be stated in the following form:[1]

(a)    S is confident H will happen in the future IFF (i.e. if and only if)
(i) H has happened before
(ii) There has been a clear pattern of H happening under T circumstances
(iii) T circumstances are currently taking place

For example, Francis has held that the following gives the necessary and sufficient conditions to predict the near future:[2]

(b) S knows that P IFF
(i) S is aware P has happened before
(ii) S is currently in a situation where P has always happened in the past
(iii) S can confidently predict P will happen in the future

Keywords

Radin’s Razor, Fallacy of Prediction

References

i.         Gettier, Edmund L., 1963, “Is Justified True Belief Knowledge?”, Analysis, 23(6): 121–123. doi:10.2307/3326922. s

ii.       Francis, Ian, 100 Flights A Collection of Essays Written on Airplanes, (Miami, Florida, 2020).

iii.     Arkady Konovalov, Ian Krajbich. Neurocomputational Dynamics of Sequence Learning. Neuron, 2018; DOI: 10.1016/j.neuron.2018.05.013

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