Assessment of the Linkage between Rainfall variability and Arable Crop production in Enugu State Nigeria
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Abstract
The Enugu state of Nigeria has not over the years achieved sustainability of productivity for food security because food production has not kept pace with the growing in the area. The decline in food production in the area is attributed to some factors including rainfall variability due to climate change. This paper assessed rainfall variability and relationships with maize and cassava production in Enugu state. Questionnaire survey techniques were employed to find out perceptions of farmers on the effects of the climate system on their crops. 30 years mean monthly rainfall data and 20 years annual crop yields were collected from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) respectively. The rainfall figures were analyzed using time-series line graph models and both rainfall and crop yield data were further analyzed using statistical techniques to determine their association. Results show high variations in rainfall within the period under investigation with upwards trends, which conforms to the farmer’s response. Also, rainfall variability contributed about 2.87% in cassava yield but contributed little or nothing to maize yield in the last 20 years, as it shows a high negative correlation coefficient with maize yield. Though, the study established that rainfall variation is highly insignificant in determining maize production and highly significant in determining cassava production in the state, there is need for adjustment strategies like early planting, crop diversification, and adhering to early warning climate system in order to minimize the risk of crop failure and then boost productivity in the area.
Keywords
Climate variation, influence, crop production, Enugu Nigeria
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